Fallacy literacy training 9/15

“I just saw a documentary about Egypt and they say that 4000 years ago there was a drought that lasted 150 years and caused the death of many, many people and animals. As far as we can see, ‘climate change’ is cyclical and has always existed”.

Structure:

• Premise 1 (explicit): “I just saw a documentary about Egypt.” It is based on a personal observation of the author of the argument
• Premise 2 (explicit): “They say that 4000 years ago there was a drought that lasted 150 years.” Presents a historical fact reported in the documentary
• Premise 3 (explicit): “This drought caused the death of many, many people and animals.” Describe the impact of that drought
• Premise 4 (implicit): “A drought is an example of natural climate change.” It implies that a prolonged drought is an example of climate change (although not mentioned directly, it is essential to the conclusion)
• Premise 5 (implicit): “Similar events to this drought can indicate broader climate patterns.” This implies that events similar to this drought can be used to determine long-term climate patterns.
• Conclusion: “As far as we can see, ‘climate change’ is cyclical and has always existed.”

Throughout the analysis, we will identify three specific reasoning flaws, noting that multiple errors may arise simultaneously, making them challenging to detect.